Forecast sheet 03-20210701
Issued 01-07-2021.
Prepared by Mark R. Payne and Christian Kiær, DTU Aqua, Copenhagen, Denmark.
This is the forecast for the 2021 cohort strength for North Sea sandeel stocks.
Forecast
The 2021 North Sea sandeel recruitment forecast covers two (1r, 2) of four assessed sandeel stocks in the North Sea, together with the combined recruitment across this portfolio. Forecasts for individual stocks suggest a low probability of a strong year class, with a high probability of these year classes being in the lower third of the historically observed recruitment (Figure 1).
The portfolio forecast (for recruitment summed across both stocks) indicates a low probability of a strong year class.