Publications
Review articles on forecasting marine ecological systems
- Payne, M. R., Hobday, A. J., MacKenzie, B. R., Tommasi, D., Dempsey, D. P., Fässler, S. M. M., et al. (2017). Lessons from the First Generation of Marine Ecological Forecast Products. Frontiers in Marine Science, 4.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00289
- Frontiers in Marine Science Research Topic, "Seasonal to decadal prediction of marine ecosystems: opportunities, approaches and applications"
https://www.frontiersin.org/research-topics/4484/seasonal-to-decadal-prediction-of-marine-ecosystems-opportunities-approaches-and-applications
- Tommasi, D., Stock, C. A., Hobday, A. J., Methot, R., Kaplan, I. C., Eveson, J. P., et. al. (2017). Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts. Progress in Oceanography, 152, 15–49.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011
- Hobday, A. J., Spillman, C. M., Paige Eveson, J., & Hartog, J. R. (2016). Seasonal forecasting for decision support in marine fisheries and aquaculture. Fisheries Oceanography, 25(S1), 45–56.
https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12083
Other Marine Ecological Forecasts
Map of known examples of marine ecological nowcast and forecast products listed in the table below - details of these products are given for the corresponding number. Note that the Coral Reef Watch forecast product (number 9, blue circle) covers the globe between 45°N and 45°S (dotted blue box).
| Key |
Product
|
Description
|
Productivity
|
| 1 |
Returns along US West Coast
(Inactive (?))
|
~1 year lead-time forecast based on an ensemble of observed ecosystem indicators combined using PCA and an empirical relationship between returns and environment indicators.
|
Spatial Distribution
|
2
|
Whalewatch
Distribution and numbers of blue whales in the California Current
|
Near-real time forecasts based on a habitat model employing remote sensing of SST, chlorophyll and SSHa standard deviation.
|
3
|
TurtleWatch
Spatial areas where there is a high risk of loggerhead turtle bycatch
|
Near-real time forecasts based on a habitat model employing remotely sensed SST.
|
4
|
Distribution of southern bluefin tuna in the Great Australian Bight
|
Forecasts 0-3 months into the future based on a habitat model employing forecasted SST. |
| 5 |
SE Australia long-line tuna fishery |
Forecasts 0-3 months into the future based on a habitat model employing forecasted SST.
|
| 6 |
California Sardine distribution
|
Forecasts up to 5 months into the future based on an empirical habitat model coupled to dynamical biogeochemical downscaling of global forecast system
|
Phenology (timing)
|
| 7 |
Timing of Gulf of Maine lobster landings
(Discontinued in 2016)
|
Landings forecast based on observed temperatures 3–4 months prior
|
| 8 |
Columbia river salmon run timing
|
Forecasts up to 3 months ahead, updated daily during run. Based on observations of ceanic upwelling, Columbia river flows, timing of juvenile arrival and an empirical regression model of timing.
|
Other
|
9
|
Coral Reef Watch’s Heat Stress Outlook
|
Weekly and composite forecast up to 4 months; updated weekly. Based on global SST forecasts and an established relationship between the amount of accumulated heat stress and severity of coral bleaching
|